On Friday, November 30th, the California Policy Lab (CPL) hosted colleagues from the law enforcement and research communities for a conference on policing innovation and reform. Over the course of the day, participants heard from local and national law enforcement leaders, researchers, practitioners, and subject matter experts about the challenges of implementing policing reform on the ground, how they measure success, and how they develop evidence to guide future policy decisions.
The day began with opening remarks from CPL-UCLA’s Executive Director, Janey Rountree, and UCLA’s Dean of Social Sciences, Darnell Hunt. Both spoke about the critical need for partnerships between practitioners and researchers to catalyze innovation in policing. Their comments set the stage for the conference’s first panel, which highlighted examples of successful partnerships, entitled “Collaborative Research Partnerships: Leveraging Data and Science to Inform Policing Innovations”.
During the first panel, participants heard first from Chief Jonathan Lewin, of the Chicago Police Department’s Bureau of Technical Services. Chief Lewin discussed the transformational impact of Chicago’s Strategic Decision Support Centers—rooms in which police officers and analysts work together to use insights from data analysis to target resources for preventing gun violence. The Cook County State Attorney’s Office also shared their experience partnering with the research community, by discussing the launch of a new data portal to advance transparency and the creation of “Hacking for Justice” trainings. Participants also heard from Kristen Mahoney, Deputy Director for Policy at the Department of Justice (DOJ)’s Bureau of Justice Assistance. Deputy Director Mahoney shared lessons from DOJ’s Public Safety Partnerships program, including the importance of exchange programs for law enforcement to learn about new tools for improving crime fighting. Finally, CPL affiliates Dr. Steven Raphael of UC Berkeley and Dr. Aaron Chalfin of the University of Pennsylvania shared findings from their research on foot beats in San Francisco, and police pursuits in Los Angeles, respectively.
Following the first panel, a distinguished group of Police Chiefs assembled during for a lunchtime session about the challenges and opportunities encountered by leaders in the field of policing. Superintendent Eddie Johnson from the Chicago Police Department spoke about strategies for improving morale and building community trust, emphasizing the importance of showing personnel you care through action, and of taking time to listen to divergent perspectives. Chief Anne Kirkpatrick of the Oakland Police Department also spoke about the role of leadership in strengthening community trust, noting for the audience that “Leadership is about followership. People follow leaders. They obey rank, but rank is not leadership”. Additionally, Deputy Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), Sean Malinowski spoke about LAPD’s experience working with CPL on quick turnaround projects that have a meaningful impact on the Department’s policies and operations.
The second session of the day focused on building for the future, highlighting strategies for improving hiring, training, and officer support. The session opened with a presentation by Lizzie Peters of the London Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime (MOPAC). Peters spoke about supporting the professionalization of policing, including MOPAC’s efforts to put evidence-based practices into action. Dr. Jyoti Belur of the UCL Institute for Global City Policing also discussed best practices in police training, and in particular, efforts to ensure that police departments are representative of the communities they serve. CPL-UCLA’s own Nefara Riesch presented next on her research with CPL Affiliate Dr. Elizabeth Linos. Their research on LAPD recruitment demonstrated that applying insights from behavioral science to communications with candidates can make an impact on persistence in police hiring processes—an important finding as departments focus on recruiting and retaining the next generation of talent. Additionally, participants heard from Superintendent Richard Smith of the London Metropolitan Police Services about his work building the case for direct entry into leadership roles in British policing. Dr. Steven Sultan of the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department provided final remarks and shared his perspective on the unique benefits of embedding psychological services within law enforcement agencies.
The day’s final session built on the sessions preceding it, with a panel on strategies to measure, improve, and earn public trust and cooperation. Superintendent Jon Simpson of the London Metropolitan Police Services discussed how surveying community members can improve customer service in policing, through their “Rate Your Police Constable” program. Next, Sujeet Rao of Elucd shared his work using technology to measure public sentiment in partnership with police departments. Following this, participants heard from Dr. Emily Owens of the University of California, Irvine about promising findings from her research on the impact of supervision on reducing officer use of force. Additionally, Dr. Rebecca Neuster of the Vera Institute discussed Compstat360, a tool used by law enforcement that integrates data-driven crime monitoring with community needs and feedback. Finally, San Francisco’s District Attorney, George Gascon, offered his views on how police departments can better empathize with community members, by understanding how certain actions might be perceived as oppressive.
The conference concluded with remarks from LAPD Police Chief Mike Moore, who emphasized that “academic relationships are what we [law enforcement] need”. Indeed, the sessions throughout the day made this case, showcasing the tremendous potential inherent in partnerships between the research and law enforcement communities. Given the vital work done by law enforcement every day, and the critical lens through which this work is viewed, this type of collaboration is now more important and urgent than ever before.
California Policy Lab Awarded $1.2M UC Multicampus Research Grant
/in News /by adminBerkeley–The California Policy Lab (CPL) was awarded a $1.2 million grant from the University of California’s Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives to leverage experts across the
UC system to tackle complex problems that include homelessness and designing education and training to meet workforce needs.
“With this grant, new scholars will provide expertise needed for projects that agency partners value,” said California Policy Lab Berkeley Faculty Director Jesse Rothstein. “These efforts are
all about helping the state strengthen its policy development, policy analysis, and research capacity.”
“We are thrilled to receive this award,” said CPL UCLA Faculty Director Till von Wachter. “The grant enables us to form a statewide network of scholars that will combine forces to increase the
Lab’s impact on the state’s most pressing social issues. It also provides students with experience in applied research.” Though this new grant, the Lab will expand beyond its original sites at UCLA and UC Berkeley to bring in new faculty at UC Davis, UC Irvine, and UC San Francisco. Over time, the Lab intends to work with faculty at all nine UC campuses.
The project pairs interdisciplinary research expertise of UC faculty with California state and county agency expertise and administrative data. The collaboration will support a range of projects in the areas of homelessness, workforce training, and beyond, including:
● A study aimed at identifying events and characteristics that may predict near-term homelessness, based on linked data from county health, criminal justice, housing, and welfare systems. This will support agency efforts to prevent homelessness, which will then be evaluated for effectiveness.
● Examining the impact of several adult vocational education and workforce training programs on subsequent employment and earnings. This will lead to success metrics for each program and identify gaps in access to effective services.
In the two years since its inception at UCLA and Berkeley, the Lab has seen incredible success conducting policy-relevant research across California government agencies, thanks to partnerships with public agencies that overcome data silos.
CPL has established itself as a trusted research partner for Los Angeles, Sonoma, and San Francisco counties, working with agencies on the front line of addressing the homelessness crisis. It established data sharing agreements covering over a dozen county agencies in these three locations, including medical, mental health, criminal justice, social service, and homeless management information systems. CPL has developed similar partnerships with a range of state agencies with responsibility for social services, higher education, and anti-poverty programs.
About the California Policy Lab
The California Policy Lab is a new University of California initiative, begun in 2017 at UC Berkeley and UCLA, designed to create data-driven insights for the public good. CPL’s mission is to partner with California’s state and local governments to generate scientific evidence that solves California’s most urgent problems, including homelessness, poverty, crime, and education inequality. The Lab facilitates close working partnerships between policymakers and researchers to help evaluate and improve public programs through empirical research and technical assistance.
Learn more at: http://www.capolicylab.org/
CPL Welcomes Members from Law Enforcement and Research Communities for Conference on Policing Innovation and Reform
/in News /by adminOn Friday, November 30th, the California Policy Lab (CPL) hosted colleagues from the law enforcement and research communities for a conference on policing innovation and reform. Over the course of the day, participants heard from local and national law enforcement leaders, researchers, practitioners, and subject matter experts about the challenges of implementing policing reform on the ground, how they measure success, and how they develop evidence to guide future policy decisions.
The day began with opening remarks from CPL-UCLA’s Executive Director, Janey Rountree, and UCLA’s Dean of Social Sciences, Darnell Hunt. Both spoke about the critical need for partnerships between practitioners and researchers to catalyze innovation in policing. Their comments set the stage for the conference’s first panel, which highlighted examples of successful partnerships, entitled “Collaborative Research Partnerships: Leveraging Data and Science to Inform Policing Innovations”.
During the first panel, participants heard first from Chief Jonathan Lewin, of the Chicago Police Department’s Bureau of Technical Services. Chief Lewin discussed the transformational impact of Chicago’s Strategic Decision Support Centers—rooms in which police officers and analysts work together to use insights from data analysis to target resources for preventing gun violence. The Cook County State Attorney’s Office also shared their experience partnering with the research community, by discussing the launch of a new data portal to advance transparency and the creation of “Hacking for Justice” trainings. Participants also heard from Kristen Mahoney, Deputy Director for Policy at the Department of Justice (DOJ)’s Bureau of Justice Assistance. Deputy Director Mahoney shared lessons from DOJ’s Public Safety Partnerships program, including the importance of exchange programs for law enforcement to learn about new tools for improving crime fighting. Finally, CPL affiliates Dr. Steven Raphael of UC Berkeley and Dr. Aaron Chalfin of the University of Pennsylvania shared findings from their research on foot beats in San Francisco, and police pursuits in Los Angeles, respectively.
Following the first panel, a distinguished group of Police Chiefs assembled during for a lunchtime session about the challenges and opportunities encountered by leaders in the field of policing. Superintendent Eddie Johnson from the Chicago Police Department spoke about strategies for improving morale and building community trust, emphasizing the importance of showing personnel you care through action, and of taking time to listen to divergent perspectives. Chief Anne Kirkpatrick of the Oakland Police Department also spoke about the role of leadership in strengthening community trust, noting for the audience that “Leadership is about followership. People follow leaders. They obey rank, but rank is not leadership”. Additionally, Deputy Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), Sean Malinowski spoke about LAPD’s experience working with CPL on quick turnaround projects that have a meaningful impact on the Department’s policies and operations.
The second session of the day focused on building for the future, highlighting strategies for improving hiring, training, and officer support. The session opened with a presentation by Lizzie Peters of the London Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime (MOPAC). Peters spoke about supporting the professionalization of policing, including MOPAC’s efforts to put evidence-based practices into action. Dr. Jyoti Belur of the UCL Institute for Global City Policing also discussed best practices in police training, and in particular, efforts to ensure that police departments are representative of the communities they serve. CPL-UCLA’s own Nefara Riesch presented next on her research with CPL Affiliate Dr. Elizabeth Linos. Their research on LAPD recruitment demonstrated that applying insights from behavioral science to communications with candidates can make an impact on persistence in police hiring processes—an important finding as departments focus on recruiting and retaining the next generation of talent. Additionally, participants heard from Superintendent Richard Smith of the London Metropolitan Police Services about his work building the case for direct entry into leadership roles in British policing. Dr. Steven Sultan of the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department provided final remarks and shared his perspective on the unique benefits of embedding psychological services within law enforcement agencies.
The day’s final session built on the sessions preceding it, with a panel on strategies to measure, improve, and earn public trust and cooperation. Superintendent Jon Simpson of the London Metropolitan Police Services discussed how surveying community members can improve customer service in policing, through their “Rate Your Police Constable” program. Next, Sujeet Rao of Elucd shared his work using technology to measure public sentiment in partnership with police departments. Following this, participants heard from Dr. Emily Owens of the University of California, Irvine about promising findings from her research on the impact of supervision on reducing officer use of force. Additionally, Dr. Rebecca Neuster of the Vera Institute discussed Compstat360, a tool used by law enforcement that integrates data-driven crime monitoring with community needs and feedback. Finally, San Francisco’s District Attorney, George Gascon, offered his views on how police departments can better empathize with community members, by understanding how certain actions might be perceived as oppressive.
The conference concluded with remarks from LAPD Police Chief Mike Moore, who emphasized that “academic relationships are what we [law enforcement] need”. Indeed, the sessions throughout the day made this case, showcasing the tremendous potential inherent in partnerships between the research and law enforcement communities. Given the vital work done by law enforcement every day, and the critical lens through which this work is viewed, this type of collaboration is now more important and urgent than ever before.
Are banks now safer?
/in News /by adminUCLA Department of Economics Professors Andrew Atkeson and Pierre-Olivier Weill, along with UCLA Anderson School of Management professor Andrea Eisfeldt, and former UCLA Ph.D student Adrien D’Avernas, co-authored a paper for the 33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics (April 12-13, 2018). Their paper, Government Guarantees and the Valuation of American Banks, is currently featured on the National Bureau of Economic Research website. Pierre-Olivier Weill introduces the material in a brief interview also featured on the website.
Sahil Punamia
/in Alumni Interview /by Simon BoardSahil Punamia
Like many of UCLA’s students, Sahil hails from northern California growing up in the quaint suburbs of the Bay Area. Growing up in high school, he was actively involved with his marching band, playing the alto saxophone and piano. Interestingly enough, Sahil’s affinity for jazz music and the opportunity to play for the marching band was a pivotal reason he attended UCLA, a testament for his passion for music and the creative arts. Despite being initially rejected by UCLA, Sahil was offered a spot on the UCLA marching band after he created a last-minute audition tape that attracted the attention of UCLA’s band director.
Having graduated UCLA in 2013 with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and a minor in Film Television & Digital Media Studies, Sahil’s decision to major in Economics was primarily motivated by his desire to learn about various aspects of business and finance. Moreover, he was impressed by the range of electives and lab courses offered by the Economics Department. He recognizes that drawing students to the major means balancing a fine line between theoretical coursework and courses that are more practical and professionally geared in nature. He believes UCLA recognizes this and that the narrative is slowly starting to change as fields like financial engineering and behavioral economics emerge.
Despite his rocky path getting into UCLA, Sahil has directly contributed to some of the university’s greatest facets. In his time here, he served as the President of Bruin Consulting and was one of the nine founding fathers of Sigma Eta Pi (SEP). With his friends, he realized the lack of entrepreneurship fraternities on the entirety of the west coast while fields like medicine, business, and law had full-fledged professional fraternities. By adopting a collaborative mindset, they were able to establish the first entrepreneurship fraternity on the west coast. The time he spent working with these organizations at UCLA taught him how to cultivate trust, work with a breadth of personalities and become a galvanizing leader without overstepping any boundaries.
All the time spent gearing towards professional development helped prepare Sahil for his role as an L.E.K consultant upon graduating. During his time at L.E.K, he forecasted industry trends, developed OTT media strategies and worked on over 35 different engagements spanning 3 years. Despite the tremendous learning curve, Sahil remarks that it was an invaluable experience. That said, as time went on, he wanted to transition out of consulting. Eventually, he turned to the media company Discovery Communications, whose programs he had watched since his youth. This gave him the chance to work on content strategy, marketing, and distribution across various Discovery Communication platforms.
Now Sahil serves on the Marketing Planning & Analysis team at Netflix. He describes his role as that of an internal consultant, leveraging data-driven insights and conducting market research to better support Netflix’s creative marketing & PR teams. He contends that success in the media industry and any industry, for that matter, requires being able to lead and understand what motivates the people around you. Figuring out how to best align the objectives of various stakeholders is a skill that will go a long way. Moreover, Sahil firmly believes that success in his field implies constant learning and that anyone seriously interested in pursuing a career in the media industry needs to be prepared to learn every day about the changes taking place, shifts in consumer behavior, new mediums of distribution, content providers etc.
Aside from growing his own professional career, Sahil seeks to make a tangible impact on the careers of our Bruins. His started his company The Aspiring Professional to coach students one on one and provide career guidance at a personal level. Moreover, he serves on the board of the UCLA Alumni Association and has conducted numerous career-focused seminars for UCLA students at the career center. Having gone through the arduous recruitment process, he knows the challenges students face when it comes to securing a job. His seminars have no doubt shaped the careers of countless students, who enjoy his practical and actionable approach to navigating the recruitment process. To him, the satisfaction gleaned from making a tangible difference in their lives is an unmatched feeling.
In his quest to strike a good work-life balance, Sahil takes the time to go for long drives and regularly attends improv comedy shows. Moving forward, he hopes to continue growing his speaking and coaching practices whilst fostering more meaningful relationships with UCLA and other universities. Ultimately, that is the legacy he would like to leave behind.
By Adithya Kumar and Marcella Pensamiento
Rethinking Randomized Controlled Trials
/in Research Spotlight /by Jerry LiuRodrigo Pinto
Sir Ronald Fisher (1890-1962) is often regarded as the most influential statistician in 20th century. His 1935 book on “The Design of Experiments” sparked a revolution towards the use of the use of random assignments in assessing research inquiries. Fisher’s work is originally motivated by agricultural experiments. He explained how experiments that depart from the random assignments involve the judgment of the experimenter which leads to bias and inaccurate interpretation of data. In his own words: “If the design of the experiment is faulty, any method of interpretation that makes it out to be decisive must be faulty too.”
Economists have long benefited from Fisher’s ideas. Randomized Control Trials are often considered the gold standard for evaluating causal effects in social experiments. In it, individuals are randomly assigned to treatment groups and, if the RCT is perfectly implemented, then the average causal effect of the treatments on an outcome can be evaluated by comparing the outcome data across treatment groups. Unfortunately, perfectly implemented Randomized Control Trials are rare in social experiments, and most experiments struggle with some degree of noncompliance, whereby agents choose not to comply with its original treatment assignment. This is a particular problem with a variety of experiments on early childhood education such as the Abecedarian project, Head Start, the Educare program and the Perry Program.
Noncompliance induces selection bias that prevents the evaluation of the causal effects intended by the RCT. Faced with this caveat, experimental economists seek strategies that prevent noncompliance while econometricians have developed statistical methods to correct for noncompliance. These efforts share the same mindset: the original treatment assignments of the Randomized Control Trial is a desirable benchmark and deviations from it ought to be avoided.
Professor Rodrigo Pinto’s recent work reverses this mindset. His paper on “Randomization Biased-Controlled Experiments” is built upon a simple insight: while a departure from random assignments in an agricultural experiment is a failure of the experiment, a departure from random assignments in a social experiment is a realization of a rational choice and, thereby, a useful source of information.
Randomization Biased-Controlled Experiments is a novel framework that connects experimental design with a classical economic model to enhance causal inference. The method recognizes that a social experiment randomizes incentives instead of treatment choices. These incentives are the input of an economic choice model which employs revealed preference analysis to characterize the set of counterfactual choices that are economically justified. The economic model is then embedded into a casual model suitable to the study of treatment effects. The method innovates on standard RTC analysis by exploiting the information on the incentives induced by the experimental design. Moreover, depending on the design of incentives, noncompliance is not an econometric problem but rather an essential tool for the identification of causal effects.
Martin Hackman featured in Bloomberg
/in News /by adminA recent article in Bloomberg Opinion has cited a new study by UCLA Department of Economics Professor Martin Hackmann and University of Georgia professor Vincent Pohl.
According to Bloomberg:
Economic Policy Challenges Facing California’s Next Governor
/in News /by Jerry LiuUCLA Department of Economics and UCLA’s Master of Applied Economics presented Economic Policy Challenges Facing California’s Next Governor on October 29th, 2018 in Korn Convocation Hall.
Professor Dora Costa in The Atlantic
/in News /by adminProfessor Dora Costa, Chair of UCLA’s Economics Department & Kenneth L. Sokoloff Chair in Economic History, was recently featured in The Atlantic for her paper, “Intergenerational transmission of paternal trauma among US Civil War ex-POWs.”
According to The Atlantic:
In addition to having her research publicized in The Atlantic, Professor Costa has also been cited by the Los Angeles Times, El Pais, and the ars TECHNICA.
Professor Emeritus John J. McCall passes away at the age of 85
/in News /by adminBy John G. Riley, a Distinguished Professor of Economics at UCLA
The UCLA Department of Economics is saddened to announce the passing of Professor Emeritus John J. McCall (February 28, 1933—September 24, 2018), he was 85 years old. John received his BA from University of Notre Dame and his MBA and in 1959 his PhD from the University of Chicago. He then worked full-time at the Rand Corporation until the mid-1960s and continued at Rand as a consultant for the remainder of his career. He worked briefly at University of Chicago and UC Irvine before being appointed a professor of economics at UCLA in 1970. He authored or edited several books and wrote numerous academic articles. In 1997, he was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society. After retiring from UCLA in the late 1990s, he moved from Los Angeles to Ojai, California where he resided for the rest of his life. He is survived by his wife of 62 years, Kathy, two sons, Sean and Brian, two grandchildren, Megan and Conor, and one great-grandchild, Giovanni.
As a doctoral student, John became interested in the work of George Stigler and Jacob Marschak (who eventually become a colleague at UCLA). George and Jasha were emphasizing the importance of studying costly information transmission in a market economy. As a post-doctoral student, John wrote “The Economics of Information and optimal stopping rules,” The Journal of Business (1965). This was the first paper to provide a formal analysis of optimal stopping problems.
With imperfect information, a decision maker must decide whether to choose immediately from a set of feasible actions, conditional upon the current information, or wait and seek additional information. John fully characterized the solution to this problem, showing that the optimal strategy was a simple cut-off rule. For a broad class of problems, it is optimal to take action when some function of the additional data received exceeds a threshold.
John’s mega hit was his Quarterly Journal of Economics paper “Economics of information and job search.” In this paper he indicates that he was further influenced by Armen Alchian and William (Bill) Allen who would also become his colleagues at UCLA. An unemployed resource was traditionally viewed as an unproductive resource. But, from a search perspective, an unemployed resource is a potentially productive resource, since the owner is using the “down time” to seek alternative and potentially more valuable uses for the resource.
In the paper John analyzes the search decision of a laid-off worker. Given the worker’s beliefs about the distribution of wages in the market-place (which may be updated as the search process continues), the unemployed worker receives a stochastic sequence of wage offers. In the simplest version of the model the stopping rule has a very simple (and now well-known) form. Continue searching until the expected difference between the next offer and the current offer is equal to the expected cost of the search. The paper also showed how the simple model could be generalized to take into account the expected duration of the new job and also how to take into account learning about the distribution of wage offers.
These two papers are the foundation stones for what is now a huge search literature.
When I arrived at UCLA in 1973, John (and fellow MIT Beaver, Michael Intriligator) were the only senior colleagues whose research papers analyzed economic phenomena using more than basic calculus. John took an immediate interest in my work and remained very supportive throughout those early years. It was not always easy as some of the “University of Chicago, LA” crowd had dreams of building a department entirely on ideas emerging from the mother school. But the Chicago influence on John was deep and broad. He was fundamentally an intellectual with a very open and curious mind.
In the quarter century that we were on the faculty together, we became good friends. And even after that, we socialized in Ojai and in Pacific Palisades. Along the way we got to know and enjoy his two sons, Sean and Brian. Last but not least, John used his knowledge of optimal stopping rules wisely and married a wonderful and talented wife, Kathy. I talked to her a few days ago and she does not seem to have changed at all. She is still very energetic and fit and full of enthusiasm.
While living in Pacific Palisades (quite near our home), Kathy developed considerable skills as a modern landscape painter and sold many paintings. We have had one of those paintings on our wall for almost thirty years. I often think of her when I look up and see her painting of a Southern California evening sky. But now when I do so, I will also remember John. He was a gentle, good-hearted colleague and friend.
Kathleen McGarry elected to the National Senate for Phi Beta Kappa
/in News /by adminThe UCLA Department of Economics extends a heartfelt congratulations to Professor Kathleen McGarry on being elected to the National Senate for Phi Beta Kappa. Founded in 1776, it is the nation’s most prestigious academic honor society. It has chapters at 286 colleges and universities in the United States, nearly 50 alumni associations, and more than half a million members worldwide. Noteworthy members include 17 U.S. Presidents, 40 U.S. Supreme Court Justices, and more than 140 Nobel Laureates. The mission of the Phi Beta Kappa Society is to champion education in the liberal arts and sciences, foster freedom of thought, and recognize academic excellence.