Oleg Itskhoki in the New Yorker
UCLA Professor Oleg Itskhoki makes a cameo appearance in the New Yorker article “Is Selling Shares in Yourself the way of the Future?”
The article can be found here.
UCLA Professor Oleg Itskhoki makes a cameo appearance in the New Yorker article “Is Selling Shares in Yourself the way of the Future?”
The article can be found here.
UCLA Professor Lee Ohanian testified before the U.S. Senate on July 20, 2022 on housing policies.
The C-SPAN video of the hearing is available here.
On May 27th, former colleagues, students, and friends of Harold Demsetz (1930-2019) hosted a conference in his honor. A video of the conference is available here.
Harold Demsetz (1930-2019), a long-time professor at UCLA, was a pioneer in the development and use of microeconomic theory to analyze questions of how property rights and institutional arrangements affect competitive behavior of firms and individuals and market outcomes.
On July 1st, Pierre Olivier Weill became coeditor of Theoretical Economics. Theoretical Economics is the leading journal in economic theory. It is open access and is a journal of the Econometric Society.
More information about Theoretical Economics can be found here.
On July 1st, Pablo Fajgelbaum was named to the Board of Editors of American Economic Review Insights.
More information about American Economic Review Insights can be found here.
Lee Ohanian discussed California’s housing crisis and potential policy remedies on a podcast available here.
Hugo Hopenhayn
By Hugo Hopenhayn
During the last 40 years, the US economy has been experiencing a series of trends that have captured the attention of economists, public policy, and media. Firstly, there has been a sharp decline in the rate of growth of labor force, following a similar decline in fertility rates. Secondly, there has been a decline in the rate of entry and exit of new businesses and a subsequent aging of the population of firms. Finally, there has been a steady increase in average firm size and concentration and a decline in labor share.
In the paper “From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share”, Professor Hopenhayn and his coauthors Julian Neira and Rish Singhania, provide a unified account of these trends, considering the role of population growth and firm demographics.
The analysis in the paper begins by highlighting the importance of changing firm
demographics as a driving force to explain these aggregate trends. The mass of US firms has been aging. While in the mid 80’s firms over ten years old accounted for 30% of the total population of firms, the share steadily climbed to reach 50% by 2015. What are the consequences of firm aging?
Firms size is increasing in age, that is a fact that holds not only for US firms but overall. The average size of a firm that is between 20 and 25 years of age is over four times as large as the average size of an entrant. Same holds for concentration, where the average increases with the age of a cohort. As a result, the aging of firms results in higher average firm size and concentration. As the paper shows, had it not been for firm aging, employment concentration would have, if anything, declined. Similarly, older firms have considerably lower exit rates than younger ones. The process of aging also explains most of the observed decline in exit rates.
So why have firms aged? The rate at which firms are created is directly related to the growth of labor force, as labor is one of the most important inputs of firms. This holds true in the aggregate data for the US but also when comparing population and firm dynamics across counties in the US, as shown in a recent paper by Pugsley and Sahin (2018). So the aging of population slows down the growth rate of labor force and thus new firm creation. This starts a gradual process of aging of firms which leads to the increase in average firm size and average concentration.
The fall in the growth of the labor force has been quite dramatic. While in the late 70’s it was growing at 2.5% per year, it is currently down to 0.5% per year. This drop has two sources. First, the US has followed the declining trend in fertility rates observed in most developed economies. Secondly, the US experienced an unusual growth in fertility rates in the postwar period, what is known as the baby boom. As a result, labor force growth followed an increasing trend that peaked in the mid 70’s. The following decline is explained by the drop in fertility and the progressive retirement of the baby boomers . Professor
Hopenhayn and coauthors find that these two factors jointly account for almost all the decline in entry rates and the subsequent aging of firms.
Mila Skulkina
Mila Skulkina, class of 2001 has lived a storied life. In this profile she shares her UCLA story and how lessons learned on campus have impacted her career.
When Mila was a teenager in the 1990s, she and her father emigrated to the United States from Moscow. She had a rudimentary knowledge of the English language and had to learn to adapt to a new life in Los Angeles. Witnessing the stark contrast in economic and political models between the two countries at a young age and the subsequent effects they played on the lives of citizens in each really fueled her curiosity in economics and the world of finance. She chose to study those subjects at UCLA and vividly recalls learning the history and the practical implications of various economic theories. She especially enjoyed the variety of classes offered both throughout the core curriculum up through the electives offered during Junior and Senior year. Mila encourages every student to evaluate all of the classes UCLA offers and to not only focus on areas where students feel like they have an edge. Pushing deeper into where one may have blind spots is what makes the art of inquiry and learning so enriching.
Mila was impacted by the mentorship and support of others during her time at UCLA, which has shaped her own passion for giving back. She considers herself fortunate to have had the opportunity to interact with Dr. Ken Sokoloff, first as a student of economic history, then in a smaller self-designed class study, and finally as one of his research contributors. She continues to carry his lessons of imparting a global and historical perspective to understand how institutional frameworks were created and fared over time across different political and economic models. Now, as an investor in Emerging Markets at Lord Abbett she uses that framework to think about the path of global economies and geopolitical environments which allows her to discern and recognize patterns. She credits her time spent at UCLA, the wide array of offered classes, and her relationships with peers, faculty, and specifically Ken, to be the foundation for her successful work product.
Mentorship is a theme throughout Mila’s career- her current mentor from UCLA Anderson helped her advance her efforts in volunteering and community involvement. Throughout her life, she worked closely with organizations focusing on the support and advancement of women, underprivileged youth, and veterans. As a member of the Bretton Woods committee, she contributes to work on economic and global cooperation, as well as initiatives on climate finance. To influence the next generation of students, she is working closely with UCLA as a member of the Board of Visitors to give back to the school that was so instrumental in her own career and life.
Mila Skulkina is the Head of Emerging Markets Fixed Income and a portfolio manager at Lord Abbett. She manages emerging markets sovereign and corporate debt across fixed income and multi-asset portfolios. Ms. Skulkina leads the ESG Sovereign analysis and integration for Emerging Markets. Prior to joining Lord Abbett in 2013, Ms. Skulkina was a research analyst at Sanders Capital working across long-only, long/short, and multi-asset portfolios. Previously, she was a strategy consultant at Bain & Company and an investment banking analyst at Merrill Lynch. She has 20 years of investment experience and holds an MBA from the UCLA Anderson School of Management. She received her undergraduate degree in business economics from UCLA, graduating summa cum laude. She is also a member of the Board of Visitors of the UCLA Economics Department and a member of the Bretton Woods Committee.
I first learnt about Axel when I was an undergraduate student in Italy in the late 1970s. His strange surname was easy to remember, but there were much deeper reasons to pay attention to him than just his surname. These were the times of the debate between Monetarists and Keynesians, and Axel’s ideas provided a fresh new perspective. I avidly read his book Keynes and the Keynesians (probably without understanding much of it), and I was thrilled when admitted to UCLA’s PhD program, at the prospect of being his student.
My expectations were not disappointed. Axel was a key mentor and an exceptionally generous supervisor. Besides his classes, he held a regular evening workshop attended by several PhD students. We presented our preliminary work and debated controversial ideas – the more controversial and weirder, the better. The discussion continued in a Chinese restaurant in Westwood, and touched on any topic. These informal but regular interactions were probably some of the most fun and memorable experiences of my years as a graduate student.
Axel’s teaching went way beyond Keynesian economics. He taught me how to write, and insisted that any good idea is wasted unless it is expressed in a clear and convincing way. He encouraged us to learn economic history – something that was neglected at the time by our profession. He pushed us to explore new problems, neglected by others. If you see a lot of bright people working on an important problem with a particular approach, he used to say, don’t join the crowd. Chances are that someone brighter or luckier than you will get there first. Instead, he insisted, seek new and unexplored paths, and don’t get lost in the technical details.
Although he refrained from using mathematics, Axel was a theorist at heart, and went after the big theoretical issues in macroeconomics. Without being constrained by the straight-jacket of formal modeling, he could discuss fundamental problems from new perspectives, and this was of immense value to his students. Many of his ideas withstood the test of time and are now active areas of research. His notion of monetary regimes emphasized the importance of central banking institutions and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. He realized that expectations of future policy have to be consistent with policymakers’ incentives, which in turn are shaped by institutions. Although he mostly focused on monetary institutions, often with a historical perspective, his ideas induced many of his students, myself included, to study institutions as fundamental drivers of policy choices and of economic behavior. He was also a fierce critic of the emerging notion of rational expectations, and insisted that the study of belief formation was fundamental but much less simple than assumed in most macroeconomic models. In this too he was ahead of his time, although here he did not outline an alternative approach.
Besides sharing many deep and long-lasting insights with his students and colleagues, Axel was also a great example as a human being. His wit, generosity and empathy for the people around him made him one of the most popular PhD supervisors. And when I joined UCLA’s department of economics as a young assistant professor, his engaging and fun personality made Axel one of the more trusted senior colleagues. We became close friends and we remained in contact over the years. I will miss him dearly.
Axel Leijonhufvud was a gentleman and a scholar. As an undergraduate at UCLA my first class in macroeconomics was from Axel and I later had the pleasure of knowing him as a colleague and a friend.
Axel well understood that what we do as economists is less to create ideas than to advance ideas and beginning with his monumental work Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes he looked towards the past as a guide to the future. One might think from his interest in the history of thought and his reservations about formal methods that he was a stuck-in-the-mud traditionalist. Nothing could be further from the truth: Axel was extremely broad-minded and supported good research regardless of whether it was “macro” or “micro” and whether it was the type of pure theory I did early in my career or whether it was careful empirical work.
Because of his broad interest in economics Axel was an outstanding graduate student supervisor and mentored and mentored well an enormous number of graduate students over his career. An anecdote makes this point. The first graduate student I helped to supervise was as a young assistant professor at UCLA. This student had been attracted to UCLA to work with Axel Leijonhufvud. His interest was in political economy, a topic neither Axel nor I specialized in. As his work in political economy was game theoretic in nature Axel quickly sent him to me with the suggestion that he take me on as a co-supervisor. I wish I could say that either Axel or I was responsible for the work done by this particular student: in fact we would meet on the occasion of a completed paper which we would read with awe and perhaps make a few expositional suggestions. Axel and I understood the work well enough to write good letters and help place this particular student in his first job at Stanford: I imagine if you are an economist you are familiar with the work of Guido Tabellini. Insofar as his supervisors deserve some credit I would say that Axel and my first collaboration was a fruitful one.
A second example of Axel’s broad approach to economics was in his faculty recruiting when he was department chair. The “Minnesota North Stars” scheme was to hire more or less the entire macroeconomic faculty from the University of Minnesota to UCLA. It was not to be, but the connections we forged during this effort paid off in the long run. It was the start of a successful effort to build UCLA macroeconomics and led to the hiring of such notable faculty as Gary Hansen, Michele Boldrin, Roger Farmer, Lee Ohanian, Andy Atkeson and Hugo Hopenhayn.
As Axel was a profound intellectual influence on me, let me wrap up with the lessons he taught me. A key idea developed by Axel was that of the Keynesian corridor. This postulates that with respect to moderate shocks a modern economy behaves as linear quadratic models of rational expectations and modest frictions suggest it should. However: with respect to bigger shocks – those that led up to the great depression; the oil shock of the 1970s; or the financial shock of 2008 – things break, and the economy does not recover so easily or rapidly. That is a profound idea and one I fear is true, but Axel has a very specific and important idea about what it is in an economy that breaks when it is subject to too much stress. He observed that modern economies have long chains – he spoke of credit chains, but we might equally well think of supply chains. The problem is that these chains are fragile – break one link and the chain no longer functions. A big shock by breaking too many of these chains leads to a situation where the economy has trouble repairing itself. This too is a profound idea and one that I fear is true.
When I say Axel was a gentleman I mean he was exemplary. Whether at UCLA where we were colleagues for decades or at Trento where I saw him from time to time I shall miss him.
UCLA Department of Economics